Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 129,360
2 South Dakota 124,573
3 Rhode Island 114,050
4 Utah 112,473
5 Arizona 109,372
6 Tennessee 108,624
7 Iowa 104,288
8 Wisconsin 104,191
9 Oklahoma 104,189
10 Arkansas 103,572
11 Nebraska 102,072
12 Kansas 99,271
13 Alabama 97,866
14 Indiana 96,675
15 Mississippi 96,212
16 South Carolina 93,837
17 Idaho 93,766
18 Nevada 93,464
19 Illinois 91,796
20 Wyoming 91,723
21 Montana 91,074
22 Louisiana 90,041
23 Texas 88,437
24 Georgia 88,399
25 California 88,049
26 Kentucky 87,618
27 New Mexico 85,981
28 Delaware 84,899
29 Florida 84,828
30 Minnesota 83,845
31 New Jersey 83,742
32 Missouri 82,808
33 Massachusetts 80,652
34 Ohio 80,206
35 New York 78,741
36 North Carolina 78,449
37 Alaska 76,561
38 Connecticut 74,983
39 Colorado 72,109
40 West Virginia 71,022
41 Pennsylvania 70,070
42 Virginia 64,134
43 Michigan 62,973
44 Maryland 61,252
45 District of Columbia 54,971
46 New Hampshire 51,852
47 Washington 43,471
48 Puerto Rico 40,995
49 Oregon 35,572
50 Maine 31,556
51 Vermont 21,732
52 Hawaii 18,878

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Carolina 647
2 New York 470
3 New Jersey 418
4 Delaware 414
5 Virginia 394
6 North Carolina 387
7 Oklahoma 383
8 Texas 370
9 Florida 367
10 Georgia 365
11 Utah 337
12 Massachusetts 336
13 Kentucky 328
14 New Hampshire 308
15 Tennessee 303
16 Rhode Island 291
17 Mississippi 290
18 Arkansas 289
19 Pennsylvania 284
20 Colorado 282
21 Louisiana 279
22 Nebraska 279
23 Arizona 266
24 Alabama 257
25 Ohio 254
26 West Virginia 247
27 California 246
28 New Mexico 238
29 South Dakota 235
30 Vermont 234
31 Indiana 216
32 Nevada 216
33 District of Columbia 211
34 Iowa 208
35 Montana 205
36 Illinois 195
37 Wisconsin 194
38 Maryland 191
39 Connecticut 172
40 Minnesota 170
41 Idaho 169
42 Kansas 148
43 North Dakota 147
44 Missouri 146
45 Michigan 141
46 Alaska 139
47 Maine 132
48 Oregon 123
49 Wyoming 122
50 Washington 121
51 Puerto Rico 85
52 Hawaii 52

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,526
2 New York 2,328
3 Massachusetts 2,237
4 Mississippi 2,170
5 Rhode Island 2,161
6 South Dakota 2,077
7 Connecticut 2,070
8 Arizona 2,054
9 Louisiana 1,995
10 North Dakota 1,917
11 Alabama 1,884
12 Pennsylvania 1,805
13 Indiana 1,804
14 Illinois 1,743
15 Arkansas 1,740
16 New Mexico 1,677
17 Iowa 1,659
18 Michigan 1,612
19 Tennessee 1,583
20 South Carolina 1,536
21 Nevada 1,524
22 Kansas 1,497
23 Georgia 1,448
24 Texas 1,425
25 Ohio 1,397
26 District of Columbia 1,387
27 Florida 1,335
28 Delaware 1,316
29 Missouri 1,282
30 Maryland 1,246
31 Montana 1,242
32 West Virginia 1,228
33 California 1,186
34 Wisconsin 1,158
35 Minnesota 1,141
36 Wyoming 1,117
37 Nebraska 1,097
38 Colorado 1,026
39 Idaho 1,010
40 Oklahoma 1,009
41 North Carolina 999
42 Kentucky 994
43 New Hampshire 831
44 Virginia 819
45 Washington 622
46 Puerto Rico 599
47 Utah 558
48 Oregon 506
49 Maine 481
50 Alaska 370
51 Vermont 302
52 Hawaii 298

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Ohio 127
2 Alabama 24
3 Arizona 20
4 Missouri 14
5 California 12
6 Delaware 12
7 Georgia 12
8 Nevada 11
9 Texas 11
10 Massachusetts 10
11 Mississippi 10
12 South Carolina 10
13 New Jersey 9
14 Rhode Island 9
15 Tennessee 9
16 Arkansas 8
17 New Mexico 8
18 North Carolina 8
19 Pennsylvania 8
20 South Dakota 8
21 Florida 7
22 Indiana 7
23 Kentucky 7
24 New York 7
25 Oklahoma 7
26 District of Columbia 6
27 Iowa 6
28 Kansas 6
29 Oregon 6
30 Connecticut 5
31 Illinois 5
32 Michigan 5
33 Louisiana 4
34 Maryland 4
35 West Virginia 4
36 New Hampshire 3
37 Colorado 2
38 Idaho 2
39 Minnesota 2
40 Montana 2
41 Nebraska 2
42 Utah 2
43 Virginia 2
44 Washington 2
45 Wisconsin 2
46 Maine 1
47 Puerto Rico 1
48 Vermont 1
49 Alaska 0
50 Hawaii 0
51 North Dakota 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 317,934 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 265,242 2 99
Bent Colorado 254,617 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 239,481 4 99
Lake Tennessee 236,460 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 126,014 228 92
Richland South Carolina 92,578 1258 59
York South Carolina 86,241 1584 49
Orange California 80,773 1836 41
Pierce Washington 40,612 2903 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,682 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 4 99
Galax city Virginia 6,617 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,164 1931 38
Orange California 1,116 1986 36
Richland South Carolina 1,114 1990 36
York South Carolina 1,036 2098 33
Pierce Washington 560 2682 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons